An investigation and replication of sleep-related cognitions, acceptance and behaviours as predictors of short- and long-term outcome in cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia.

The objectives were to investigate the potential for sleep-related behaviours, acceptance and cognitions to predict outcome (insomnia severity) of cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia (CBT-I). Baseline and outcome data from four randomised controlled trials (n = 276) were used. Predictors were the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes about Sleep-10 (DBAS-10), Sleep-Related Behaviours Questionnaire (SRBQ), and Sleep Problems Acceptance Questionnaire (SPAQ), and empirically derived factors from a factor analysis combining all items at baseline (n = 835). Baseline values were used to predict post-treatment outcome, and pre-post changes in the predictors were used to predict follow-up outcomes after 3-6 months, 1 year, or 3-10 years, measured both as insomnia severity and as better or worse long-term sleep patterns. A majority (29 of 52) of predictions of insomnia severity were significant, but when controlling for insomnia severity, only two (DBAS-10 at short-term and SRBQ at mid-term follow-up) of the 12 predictions using established scales, and three of the 40 predictions using empirically derived factors, remained significant. The strongest predictor of a long-term, stable sleep pattern was insomnia severity reduction during treatment. Using all available predictors in an overfitted model, 21.2% of short- and 58.9% of long-term outcomes could be predicted. We conclude that although the explored constructs may have important roles in CBT-I, the present study does not support that the DBAS-10, SRBQ, SPAQ, or factors derived from them, would be unique predictors of outcome.