Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types.

Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.