Graphitization of carbon offers a promising route to upcycle waste biomass and plastics into functional carbon nanomaterials for a range of applications including energy storage devices. One challenge to the more widespread utilization of this technology is controlling the carbon nanostructures formed. In this work, we undertake a meta-analysis of graphitization catalyzed by transition metals, examining the available electron microscopy data of carbon nanostructures and finding a correlation between different nanostructures and metal particle size. By considering a thermodynamic description of the graphitization process on transition-metal nanoparticles, we show an energy barrier exists that distinguishes between different growth mechanisms. Particles smaller than ∼25 nm in radius remain trapped within closed carbon structures, while nanoparticles larger than this become mobile and produce nanotubes and ribbons. These predictions agree closely with experimentally observed trends and should provide a framework to better understand and tailor graphitization of waste materials into functional carbon nanostructures.