Species distribution modelling and cpSSR reveal population history of the Neotropical annual herb Tithonia rotundifolia (Asteraceae).

The impacts of the historical geologic and climatic events on the diversity and genetic structure of Neotropical taxa have recently become a subject of study. However, annual plants associated with tropical dry forests remain under-studied. The exploration of additional taxa in contrasting environments will improve the current understanding of responses of the Neotropical biota to these events. Here, we explore the species distribution and geographic structure of the annual herb Tithonia rotundifolia. We sampled 175 individuals from 19 populations of T. rotundifolia. Species distribution modelling and six microsatellite chloroplast loci were used to infer its population history. We identified areas of historical climate suitability and then tested if there is genetic structuring among these areas. Haplotypes showed strong phylogeographic structure. Historical climatic suitability areas were found along the Pacific coast; however, a gap was found at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (IT). Although Bayesian analysis showed population structuring, amova revealed that the IT is not its main driver. Instead, a subdivision into a higher number of regions had higher FCT values. Also, populations to the east of the IT showed evidence of recent population expansion and migration in a south-north direction. Pleistocene climate fluctuations partially explain the geographic structure of T. rotundifolia. However, life-history characteristics such as limited seed dispersal and the patchy distribution of suitable habitats explain the high haplotype diversity and population sub-structuring and diversity. Lastly, the absence of geographic structure of some haplotypes may indicate long-distance dispersal, or hybridisation with the closely related T. tubaeformis.