The Dynamic Equilibrium Mechanism of Regional Lithium Flow for Transportation Electrification.

To assess changes in the lithium supply chain resulting from the development of the electric vehicle industry and corresponding impacts, this study established a regional dynamic flow model of the entire anthropogenic life cycle of lithium in China from 2000 to 2050. Based on historical data, this model provides output data including production, consumption and international trade of lithium embodied in five types of commodities. Results indicate that the amount of lithium flow in 2050 will be 13-20 times greater than that in 2015. The lithium applied in electric vehicles will account for the largest proportion of in-use stocks of lithium starting in 2022. Lithium recovery will not play a big role in reducing supply pressure until 2030. Comparing all types of lithium-containing commodities, import dependence on minerals will remain the greatest within the temporal boundary. This factor reflects a nonnegligible risk to the supply demand balance considering the high concentration of mineral import structure in China currently. Several policy recommendations are offered for the optimization of China's flow structure. On the demand side, limited capacity expansion and cutting overcapacity of downstream commodities should be under consideration to distribute lithium import more reasonably. On the supply side, the potential oversupply issues caused by low-grade scrap require further development of recycling technology.