Prediction of future curve angle using prior radiographs in previously untreated idiopathic scoliosis: natural history from age 6 to after the end of growth (SOSORT 2022 award winner).

Eric C Parent Sabrina Donzelli Maryna Yaskina Alberto Negrini Giulia Rebagliati Claudio Cordani Fabio Zaina Stefano Negrini

Published in: European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society (2023)

The models can help clinicians predict how much curves would progress without treatment at future timepoints of their choice using simple variables. Predictions can inform treatment prescription or show families why no treatment is recommended. The nonlinear effects of time account for the rapid increase in curve angle at the beginning of growth and the slowed progression after maturity. These validated models predicted future Cobb angle with good accuracy in untreated idiopathic scoliosis over the full growth spectrum.

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