2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years.
Jan EsperMax C A TorbensonUlf BüntgenPublished in: Nature (2024)
Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer 1,2 , 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record 3-5 . However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures 6 . Here we combine observed and reconstructed June-August surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than 0.5 °C. Comparison of the 2023 June-August warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in CE 536 shows a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93 °C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse-gases-induced warming trend 7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event 8 , this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.