Monitoring the Age of Mosquito Populations Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy.

Mosquito control with bednets, residual sprays or fumigation remains the most effective tool for preventing vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and Zika, though there are no widely used entomological methods for directly assessing its efficacy. Mosquito age is the most informative metric for evaluating interventions that kill adult mosquitoes but there is no simple or reliable way of measuring it in the field. Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) has been shown to be a promising, high-throughput method that can estimate the age of mosquitoes. Currently the ability of NIRS to measure mosquito age is biased, and has relatively high individual mosquito measurement error, though its capacity to rigorously monitor mosquito populations in the field has never been assessed. In this study, we use machine learning methods from the chemometric literature to generate more accurate, unbiased estimates of individual mosquito age. These unbiased estimates produce precise population-level measurements, which are relatively insensitive to further increases in NIRS accuracy when feasible numbers of mosquitoes are sampled. The utility of NIRS to directly measure the impact of pyrethroid resistance on mosquito control is illustrated, showing how the technology has potential as a highly valuable tool for directly assessing the efficacy of mosquito control interventions.