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Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup.

Cars HommesTomasz MakarewiczDomenico MassaroTom Smits
Published in: Journal of evolutionary economics (2017)
In order to understand heterogeneous behavior amongst agents, empirical data from Learning-to-Forecast (LtF) experiments can be used to construct learning models. This paper follows up on Assenza et al. (2013) by using a Genetic Algorithms (GA) model to replicate the results from their LtF experiment. In this GA model, individuals optimize an adaptive, a trend following and an anchor coefficient in a population of general prediction heuristics. We replicate experimental treatments in a New-Keynesian environment with increasing complexity and use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the model explains the experimental data. We find that the evolutionary learning model is able to replicate the three different types of behavior, i.e. convergence to steady state, stable oscillations and dampened oscillations in the treatments using one GA model. Heterogeneous behavior can thus be explained by an adaptive, anchor and trend extrapolating component and the GA model can be used to explain heterogeneous behavior in LtF experiments with different types of complexity.
Keyphrases
  • pet ct
  • machine learning
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  • genome wide
  • monte carlo
  • gene expression
  • computed tomography
  • deep learning
  • working memory
  • molecular dynamics
  • copy number
  • big data