Model-Based ROC Curve: Examining the Effect of Case Mix and Model Calibration on the ROC Plot.

Compared with examining model discrimination, examining model calibration has not received the same level of attention among investigators who develop or examine risk prediction models.This article introduces the model-based ROC (mROC) curve as the basis for graphical and statistical examination of model calibration on the ROC plot.This article introduces a formal statistical test based on mROC for examining model calibration that does not require arbitrary smoothing or grouping factors.Investigators who develop or validate risk prediction models can now also use the popular ROC plot for examining model calibration, as a critical but often neglected component in predictive analytics.