Potential adaptive habitats for the narrowly distributed and rare bamboo species Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue & T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb. under future climate change in China.

The global climate change has resulted in substantial modifications to the distribution patterns of narrowly distributed species across different time periods, leading to an imminent threat to the survival of some vulnerable species. Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue & T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb., a bamboo species endemic to the transition zone from the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Sichuan Basin with high economic and ecological value, exhibits a limited range and rarity. Utilizing eight environmental variables and 56 occurrence records, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution range of C. tumidissinoda under current and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), elevation and isothermality (Bio3) were the crucial factors determining the species' distribution, accounting for 31.24%, 28.27% and 17.24% of data variability, respectively. The distribution centroid of C. tumidissinoda is anticipated to shift towards higher latitudes in response to future climate change, and the projected habitat suitability is expected to expand under ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios while remaining unchanged or contracting under the ssp126 scenario. Despite these expansions, the suitable habitats remain limited, with the largest being approximately 2.08 × 10 4  km 2 , indicating a significant threat to its survival. Our study provides insights into the adaptive responses of C. tumidissinoda to climate change, enriching scientific knowledge for developing effective conservation measurements as well as sustainable utilization.