Inferring responses to climate warming from latitudinal pattern of clonal hybridization.

Climate warming may affect reproductive isolation between sympatric sister species by modifying reproductive phenology or mate choice. This is expected to result in a latitudinal progression of hybridization in response to the shifting of environmental conditions. The fish species northern redbelly dace (Chrosomus eos) and finescale dace (C. neogaeus) display a wide sympatric distribution in North America. The asexual reproduction of their hybrids allows determining where and when hybridization occurred. The aim of this study was twofold: first, to assess whether temperature affected reproductive isolation, and second, whether the effects of climate warming resulted in a latitudinal progression of hybridization. We performed a 500 km latitudinal survey (51 sites) in southeastern Quebec (Canada) and determined the distribution of clonal hybrid lineages. Results revealed a total of 78 hybrid lineages, including 70 which originated locally. We detected a significant difference between the southern and northern range of the survey in terms of the proportion of sites harboring local hybrids (20/23 vs. 8/28 sites, respectively) and hybrid diversity (57 vs. 13 lineages, respectively). This confirmed that there was more frequent interspecific mating in the warmest sites. In the southern range, diversity of lineages and simulations suggest that hybridization first took place (>7,000 years) in sites characterized by a longer growing season, followed by northerly adjacent sites (ca. 3,500-5,000 years). Moreover, evidence of hybridization occurring in present-day time was detected. This suggests that the current warming episode is going beyond the limits of the previous warmest period of the Holocene.