Estimation of the economic impact of heat stress on the Chilean dairy regions by using two comfort thermal indices.

The study aimed to estimate economic losses associated with heat stress in the eight dairy production regions (DPR), defined by the Dairy Chilean Consortium, using two comfort thermal indices, namely, the temperature-humidity index (THI) and the THI adjusted for solar radiation and wind speed (THIa). Hourly records from 19 weather stations (Nov - Mar 2017-2022) were collected to estimate the comfort thermal indices. The economic impact was estimated considering a critical threshold of 65 for both indices and the effect of higher values on loss in milk yield, days open, culling rate, and deaths. There were differences in the number of hours above the threshold among DPRs, independent of the thermal index used (P < 0.01). The greatest values were observed in DPRs I, II, and VIII, which concentrate most dairy cows. Average losses in milk yield were between 2.0 and 6.4 times higher when THIa was used instead of THI, which also depends on the DPR (P < 0.01). These estimations coincide with those observed empirically by producers. The lowest average economic losses per cow during the summer season (5 seasons average) occurred in DPR VI (US $ 91.5), and the highest losses were observed in DPR I (US $ 184.2) both using THIa. At the country level, economic losses fluctuate between US $ 29.0 and 108.4 million per summer season, depending on the comfort thermal index used. Finally, heat stress impacts negatively and significantly the Chilean dairy sector, which is highly dependent on the DPR.