Are the relevant risk factors being adequately captured in empirical studies of smoking initiation? A machine learning analysis based on the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study.

Understanding individual risk factors for smoking initiation is essential to prevent smoking initiation. With this methodology, a set of the most informative predictors of smoking onset in the PATH data was identified. Besides reconfirming well-known risk factors, the findings suggested additional predictors of smoking initiation that have been overlooked in previous work. More studies that focus on the newly discovered factors (BMI and dental/oral health status,) are needed to confirm their predictive power against the onset of smoking as well as determine the underlying mechanisms.