Prognosis of Alzheimer's Disease Using Quantitative Mass Spectrometry of Human Blood Plasma Proteins and Machine Learning.

Early recognition of the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) onset is a global challenge that requires the development of reliable and affordable screening methods for wide-scale application. Proteomic studies of blood plasma are of particular relevance; however, the currently proposed differentiating markers are poorly consistent. The targeted quantitative multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) assay of the reported candidate biomarkers (CBs) can contribute to the creation of a consistent marker panel. An MRM-MS analysis of 149 nondepleted EDTA-plasma samples (MHRC, Russia) of patients with AD ( n = 47), mild cognitive impairment (MCI, n = 36), vascular dementia ( n = 8), frontotemporal dementia ( n = 15), and an elderly control group ( n = 43) was performed using the BAK 125 kit (MRM Proteomics Inc., Canada). Statistical analysis revealed a significant decrease in the levels of afamin, apolipoprotein E, biotinidase, and serum paraoxonase/arylesterase 1 associated with AD. Different training algorithms for machine learning were performed to identify the protein panels and build corresponding classifiers for the AD prognosis. Machine learning revealed 31 proteins that are important for AD differentiation and mostly include reported earlier CBs. The best-performing classifiers reached 80% accuracy, 79.4% sensitivity and 83.6% specificity and were able to assess the risk of developing AD over the next 3 years for patients with MCI. Overall, this study demonstrates the high potential of the MRM approach combined with machine learning to confirm the significance of previously identified CBs and to propose consistent protein marker panels.