Shifts in the composition and distribution of Pacific Arctic larval fish assemblages in response to rapid ecosystem change.

The Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem has undergone rapid changes in recent years due to ocean warming, sea ice loss, and increased northward transport of Pacific-origin waters into the Arctic. These climate-mediated changes have been linked to range shifts of juvenile and adult subarctic (boreal) and Arctic fish populations, though it is unclear if distributional changes are also occurring during the early life stages. We analyzed larval fish abundance and distribution data sampled in late summer from 2010-2019 in two interconnected Pacific Arctic ecosystems: the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, to determine whether recent warming and loss of sea ice has restricted habitat for Arctic species and altered larval fish assemblage composition from Arctic- to boreal-associated taxa. Multivariate analyses revealed the presence of three distinct multi-species assemblages across all years: 1) a boreal assemblage dominated by yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera), capelin (Mallotus catervarius), and walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus); 2) an Arctic assemblage composed of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and other common Arctic species; and 3) a mixed assemblage composed of the dominant species from the other two assemblages. We found that the wind- and current-driven northward advection of warmer, subarctic waters and the unprecedented low-ice conditions observed in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas beginning in 2017 and persisting into 2018 and 2019 have precipitated community-wide shifts, with the boreal larval fish assemblage expanding northward and offshore and the Arctic assemblage retreating poleward. We conclude that Arctic warming is most significantly driving changes in abundance at the leading and trailing edges of the Chukchi Sea larval fish community as boreal species increase in abundance and Arctic species decline. Our analyses document how quickly larval fish assemblages respond to environmental change and reveal that the impacts of Arctic borealization on fish community composition spans multiple life stages over large spatial scales.