Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network.
Anne G HoenThomas J HladishRosalind M M EggoMichael LencznerJohn S BrownsteinLauren Ancel MeyersPublished in: Journal of medical Internet research (2015)
Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic resurgence without having to forecast future changes in hosts, pathogens, or the environment.