Can Grapevine Leaf Water Potential Be Modelled from Physiological and Meteorological Variables? A Machine Learning Approach.

Climate change is affecting global viticulture, increasing heatwaves and drought. Precision irrigation, supported by robust water status indicators (WSIs), is inevitable in most of the Mediterranean basin. One of the most reliable WSIs is the leaf water potential (Ψleaf), which is determined via an intrusive and time-consuming method. The aim of this work is to discern the most effective variables that are correlated with plants' water status and identify the variables that better predict Ψleaf. Five grapevine varieties grown in the Alentejo region (Portugal) were selected and subjected to three irrigation treatments, starting in 2018: full irrigation (FI), deficit irrigation (DI), and no irrigation (NI). Plant monitoring was performed in 2023. Measurements included stomatal conductance (gs), predawn water potential Ψpd, stem water potential (Ψstem), thermal imaging, and meteorological data. The WSIs, namely Ψpd and gs, responded differently according to the irrigation treatment. Ψstem measured at mid-morning (MM) and mid-day (MD) proved unable to discern between treatments. MM measurements presented the best correlations between WSIs. gs showed the best correlations between the other WSIs, and consequently the best predictive capability to estimate Ψpd. Machine learning regression models were trained on meteorological, thermal, and gs data to predict Ψpd, with ensemble models showing a great performance (ExtraTrees: R2=0.833, MAE=0.072; Gradient Boosting: R2=0.830; MAE=0.073).