Risk of invasive waterfowl interaction with poultry production: Understanding potential for avian pathogen transmission via species distribution models.

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have devastated poultry production across the United States, with more than 77 million birds culled in 2022-2024 alone. Wild waterfowl, including various invasive species, host numerous pathogens, including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), and have been implicated as catalysts of disease outbreaks among native fauna and domestic birds. In major poultry-producing states like Arkansas, USA, where the poultry sector is responsible for significant economic activity (>$4 billion USD in 2022), understanding the risk of invasive waterfowl interactions with domestic poultry is critical. Here, we assessed the risk of invasive waterfowl-poultry interaction in Arkansas by comparing the density of poultry production sites (chicken houses) to areas of high habitat suitability for two invasive waterfowl species, (Egyptian Goose [ Alopochen aegyptiaca ] and Mute Swan [ Cygnus olor ]), known to host significant pathogens, including avian influenza viruses. The percentage of urban land cover was the most important habitat characteristic for both invasive waterfowl species. At the 95% confidence interval, chicken house densities in areas highly suitable for both species (Egyptian Goose = 0.91 ± 0.11 chicken houses/km 2 ; Mute Swan = 0.61 ± 0.03 chicken houses/km 2 ) were three to five times higher than chicken house densities across the state (0.17 ± 0.01 chicken houses/km 2 ). We show that northwestern and western Arkansas, both areas of high importance for poultry production, are also at high risk of invasive waterfowl presence. Our results suggest that targeted monitoring efforts for waterfowl-poultry contact in these areas could help mitigate the risk of avian pathogen exposure in Arkansas and similar regions with high poultry production.