Independent and joint associations of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness and its dynamic changes and obesity with the risk of hypertension: A prospective cohort.

Our aim was to examine the independent and joint associations of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and its changes and obesity with risk of hypertension in a rural Chinese population. A prospective cohort including 9848 adults without hypertension at baseline was enrolled. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated by logistic regression models. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response relationship. During 6 years follow-up, 2,019 individuals developed hypertension. A negative association between estimated CRF and hypertension incidence was observed, with the risk being 0.87 (0.84-0.90) per MET increment. For estimated CRF change, the risks of hypertension were 1.50 (1.27-1.77) and 0.75 (0.59-0.97) for decreasers and increasers, respectively, compared to maintainers. Joint analyses showed individuals in the overweight/obesity-fourth quartile of estimated CRF had a 2.08 times higher risk of hypertension than those in the normal weight-first quartile (P interaction  < 0.05). Those overweight/obesity-decreasers had the highest risk (OR: 2.19, 95%CI: 1.71-2.81; P interaction  < 0.05) compared to the normal-maintainers. Similar results for abdominal obesity were also observed. Estimated CRF and its dynamic changes showed a negative association with hypertension incidence in the rural Chinese population.