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Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Melinda D SmithKate D WilkinsMartin C HoldregePeter WilfahrtScott L CollinsAlan K KnappOsvaldo E SalaJeffrey S DukesRichard P PhillipsLaura YahdjianLaureano A GherardiTimothy OhlertClaus BeierLauchlan H FraserAnke JentschMichael E LoikFernando T MaestreSally A PowerQiang YuAndrew J FeltonSeth M MunsonYiqi LuoHamed AbdoliMehdi AbediConcepción L AladosJuan AlbertiMoshe AlonHui AnBrian AnackerMaggie AndersonHarald AugeSeton BachleKhadijeh BahalkehMichael BahnAmgaa BatbaatarTaryn L BauerleKaren H BeardKai BehnIlka BeilLucio BiancariIrmgard BlindowViviana Florencia BondarukElizabeth T BorerEdward W BorkCarlos Martin BruschettiKerry M ByrneJames F CahillDianela A CalvoMichele CarbognaniAugusto CardoniCameron N CarlyleMiguel Castillo-GarciaScott X ChangJeff ChieppaMarcus V CianciarusoOfer CohenAmanda L CordeiroDaniela F CusackSven DahlkePedro DaleoCarla M D'AntonioLee H DietterichTim S DohertyMaren DubbertAnne EbelingHéctor J AguadoFelícia M FischerT'ai G W ForteTobias GebauerBeatriz GozaloAaron C GreenvilleKarlo Gregório Guidoni-MartinsHeather J HannuschSiri Vatsø HaugumYann HautierMariet HeftingHugh A L HenryDaniela HossJohannes IngrischOscar IribarneForest IsbellYari JohnsonSamuel JordanEugene F KellyKaitlin KimmelJuergen KreylingGyörgy Kröel-DulayAlicia KröpflAngelika KübertAndrew KulmatiskiEric G LambKlaus Steenberg LarsenJulie E LarsonJason LawsonCintia V LederAnja LindstädterJielin LiuShirong LiuAlexandra G LodgeGrisel LongoAlejandro LoydiJunwei LuanFrederick Curtis LubbeCraig MacfarlaneKathleen Mackie-HaasAndrey V MalyshevAdrián Maturano-RuizThomas MerchantDaniel B MetcalfeAkira S MoriEdwin MudongoGregory S NewmanUffe N NielsenDale NimmoYujie NiuPaola NobreRory C O'ConnorRomà OgayaGastón R OñatibiaIldikó OrbánBrooke OsborneRafael OtfinowskiWilliam K PetryJosep PenuelasPablo Luis PeriGuadalupe PeterAlessandro PetragliaCatherine Picon-CochardValério D PillarJuan Manuel Piñeiro-GuerraLaura W PlougheRobert M PlowesCristy Portales-ReyesSuzanne M ProberYolanda PueyoSasha C ReedEuan G RitchieDana Aylén RodríguezWilliam E RogersChristiane RoscherAna M SánchezBráulio A SantosMaría Cecilia ScarfóEric W SeabloomBaoku ShiLara A SouzaAndreas StampfliRachel J StandishMarcelo SternbergWei SunMarie SünnemannMichelle TedderPål ThorvaldsenDashuan TianKatja TielbörgerAlejandro ValdecantosLiesbeth van den BrinkVigdis VandvikMathew R VankoughnettLiv Guri VelleChanghui WangYi WangGlenda M WardleChristiane WernerCunzheng WeiGeorg WiehlJennifer L WilliamsAmelia A WolfMichaela ZeiterFawei ZhangJuntao ZhuNing ZongXiaoan Zuo
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2024)
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • arabidopsis thaliana
  • human health
  • heat stress
  • plant growth
  • risk assessment
  • single cell
  • neural network