Genic distribution modelling predicts adaptation of the bank vole to climate change.

The most likely pathway for many species to survive future climate change is by pre-existing trait variation providing a fitness advantage under the new climate. Here we evaluate the potential role of haemoglobin (Hb) variation in bank voles under future climate change. We model gene-climate relationships for two functionally distinct Hb types, HbS and HbF, which have a north-south distribution in Britain presenting an unusually tractable system linking genetic variation in physiology to geographical and temporal variation in climate. Projections to future climatic conditions suggest a change in relative climatic suitability that would result in HbS being displaced by HbF in northern Britain. This would facilitate local adaptation to future climate-without Hb displacement, populations in northern Britain would likely be suboptimally adapted because their Hb would not match local climatic conditions. Our study shows how pre-existing physiological differences can influence the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.