Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics.
Simon P J de JongZandra C Felix GarzaJoseph C GibsonAlvin X HanSarah van LeeuwenRobert P de VriesGeert-Jan BoonsMarliek van HoeselKaren de HaanLaura E van GroeningenKatina D HulmeHugo D G van WilligenElke WynbergGodelieve J de BreeAmy MatserMargreet BakkerLia van der HoekMaria PrinsNeeltje A KootstraDirk EgginkBrooke E NicholsMenno D de JongColin A RussellPublished in: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences (2022)
The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.