Diversifying Selection Analysis Predicts Antigenic Evolution of 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Virus in Humans.

The WHO estimates that approximately 5 to 10% of adults and 20 to 30% of children in the world are infected by influenza virus each year. While an adaptive immune response helps eliminate the virus following acute infection, the virus rapidly evolves to evade the established protective memory immune response, thus allowing for the regular seasonal cycles of influenza virus infection. The analytical approach described here, which combines an analysis of diversifying selection with an integration of immune epitope data, has allowed us to identify antigenic regions that contribute to protective immunity and are therefore the key targets of immune evasion by the virus. This information can be used to determine when sequence variations in seasonal influenza virus strains have affected regions responsible for protective immunity in order to decide when new vaccine formulations are warranted.