Relapse and transformation to myelodysplastic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia following immunosuppressive therapy for aplastic anemia is more common as compared to allogeneic stem cell transplantation with a negative impact on survival.

We studied the incidence of relapse, transformation to myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myeloid leukemia, and survival in patients with aplastic anemia (AA) surviving more than 1 year after ATG/ALG-based immunosuppressive therapy (IST) between 1985 and 2020. Four-hundred seventy patients (413 adults and 57 children) were studied, and data were compared with 223 patients who underwent matched sibling donor transplant (MSD HSCT). Median follow-up is 50 months (12-359). Relapse occurred in 21.9% at a median time of 33.5 months (5-228) post IST. Twenty-six (5.5%) patients progressed to PNH, while 20 (4.3%) evolved to MDS/AML. Ten-year estimated overall survival (OS) is 80.9 ± 3% and was significantly better in patients without an event (85.1 ± 4%) compared to relapse (74.6% ± 6.2%) or clonal evolution (12.8% ± 11.8%) (p = 0.024). While the severity of AA (p = 0.011) and type of ATG (p = 0.028) used predicted relapse, only age at IST administration influenced clonal evolution (p = 0.018). Among HSCT recipients, relapse rates were 4.9% with no clonal evolution, and the 10-year OS was 94.5 ± 2%. In patients who survived 1 year following IST, outcomes were good except with clonal evolution to MDS/AML. These outcomes, however, were still inferior compared to matched sibling donor HSCT.