Linking physiological drought resistance traits to growth and mortality of three northeastern tree species.

Climate change is raising concerns about how forests will respond to extreme droughts, heat waves, and their co-occurrence. In this greenhouse study, we tested how carbon and water relations relate to seedling growth and mortality of northeastern US trees during and after extreme drought, warming, and combined drought and warming. We compared the response of our focal species red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) to a common associate (paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and a species expected to increase abundance in this region with climate change (northern red oak, Quercus rubra L.). We tracked growth and mortality, photosynthesis, and water use of 216 seedlings of these species through a treatment and a recovery year. Each red spruce seedling was planted in containers either alone or with another seedling to simulate potential competition and seedlings were exposed to combinations of drought (irrigated, 15-day 'short', or 30-day 'long') and temperature (ambient or 16 days at +3.5 °C daily maximum) treatments. We found dominant effects of the drought reducing photosynthesis, midday water potential, and growth of spruce and birch, but that oak showed considerable resistance to drought stress. The effects of planting seedlings together were moderate and likely due to competition for limited water. Despite high temperatures reducing photosynthesis for all species, the warming imposed in this study minorly impacted growth only for oak in the recovery year. Overall, we found that the diverse water-use strategies employed by the species in our study related to their growth and recovery following drought stress. This study provides physiological evidence to support the prediction that native species to this region like red spruce and paper birch are susceptible to future climate extremes that may favor other species like northern red oak, leading to potential impacts on tree community dynamics under climate change.