Influence of Pharmaceutical Copayment on Emergency Hospital Admissions: A 1978-2018 Time Series Analysis in Spain.

No studies have evaluated the influence of pharmaceutical copayment on hospital admission rates using time series analysis. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the relationship between hospital admission rates and the influence of the introduction of a pharmaceutical copayment system (PCS). In July 2012, a PCS was implemented in Spain, and we designed a time series analysis (1978-2018) to assess its impact on emergency hospital admissions. Hospital admission rates were estimated between 1978 and 2018 each month using the Hospital Morbidity Survey in Spain (the number of urgent hospital admissions per 100,000 inhabitants). This was conducted for men, women and both and for all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory hospital discharges. Life expectancy was obtained from the National Institute of Statistics. The copayment variable took a value of 0 before its implementation (pre-PCS: January 1978-June 2012) and 1 after that (post-PCS: July 2012-December 2018). ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) (2,0,0)(1,0,0) models were estimated with two predictors (life expectancy and copayment implementation). Pharmaceutical copayment did not influence hospital admission rates (with p-values between 0.448 and 0.925) and there was even a reduction in the rates for most of the analyses performed. In conclusion, the PCS did not influence hospital admission rates. More studies are needed to design health policies that strike a balance between the amount contributed by the taxpayer and hospital admission rates.