Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling.

Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in M w 8.7 earthquakes every T  > 200 years.