Electronic Health Record-Based Absolute Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer in the Chinese Population: Model Development and External Validation.

Three nested 10-year EC absolute risk prediction models for Chinese adults aged 30-79 years were developed and validated, which may be particularly useful for populations in low EC-risk areas. Even the simple model with only 5 predictors available from EHRs had excellent discrimination and good calibration, indicating its potential for broader use in tailored EC prevention. The simple and intermediate models have the potential to be widely used for both primary and secondary prevention of EC.