Prediction of serious RSV-related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons.
Burney A KiekeEdward A BelongiaDavid L McClureVivek ShindePublished in: Influenza and other respiratory viruses (2020)
We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or pneumonia diagnosis. The model used logistic regression with penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The reduced penalized model included age ≥ 75 years, ≥1 ED visit in prior year, crackles/rales, tachypnea, wheezing, new/increased sputum, and new/increased dyspnea. The optimal score cutoff yielded sensitivity and specificity of 66.0% and 81.6%. This prediction model provided moderate utility for identifying older adults with elevated risk of complicated RSV illness.
Keyphrases
- respiratory syncytial virus
- emergency department
- respiratory tract
- end stage renal disease
- ejection fraction
- physical activity
- newly diagnosed
- chronic kidney disease
- cystic fibrosis
- mycobacterium tuberculosis
- prognostic factors
- intensive care unit
- metabolic syndrome
- weight loss
- patient reported outcomes
- acute care
- acute respiratory distress syndrome