Indicators to assess temporal variability in marine connectivity processes: A semi-theoretical approach.

Oceanographic connectivity in an effective network of protected areas is crucial for restoring and stabilising marine populations. However, temporal variability in connectivity is rarely considered as a criterion in designing and evaluating marine conservation planning. In this study, indicators were defined to characterise the temporal variability in occurrence, flux, and frequency of connectivity in a northwestern Mediterranean Sea area. Indicators were tested on semi-theoretically-estimated connections provided by the runs of a passive particle transport model in a climatological year and in three years between 2006-2020, showing large deviation from the climatological year. The indicators allowed comparing the temporal variability in connectivity of four zones, highlighted differences in connectivity due to their locations and the mesoscale hydrodynamics, and identified areas that require further investigation. The three indicators also showed that the temporal variability in connectivity was influenced by the duration and depth of particle transport, although no consistent pattern was observed in the indicator variations of the compared zones. Provided that specific objectives will be given when parameterising transport models (i.e., selection of focus species and time period), indicators of temporal variability in connectivity have potential to support spatial conservation planning, prioritise the protection of marine resources, and measure the effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas, in line with a long-term vision of ocean management.