Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential.
Lidong MoConstantin M ZohnerPeter B ReichJingjing LiangSergio de-MiguelGert-Jan NabuursSusanne S RennerJohan van den HoogenArnan ArazaMartin HeroldLeila MirzagholiHaozhi MaColin AverillOliver L PhillipsJavier G P GamarraIris HordijkDevin RouthMeinrad AbeggYves C Adou YaoGiorgio AlbertiAngelica M Almeyda ZambranoBraulio Vilchez AlvaradoEsteban Alvarez-DávilaPatricia Alvarez-LoayzaLuciana F AlvesIêda AmaralChristian AmmerClara Antón-FernándezAlejandro Araujo-MurakamiLuzmila ArroyoValerio AvitabileGerardo A Aymard CorredorTimothy R BakerRadomir BałazyOlaf S BánkiJorcely G BarrosoMeredith L BastianJean-François BastinLuca BirigazziPhilippe BirnbaumRobert BitarihoPascal BoeckxFrans BongersOlivier BouriaudPedro Henrique Santin BrancalionSusanne BrandlFrancis Q BrearleyRoel J W BrienenEben N BroadbentHelge BruelheideFilippo BussottiRoberto Cazzolla GattiRicardo G CésarGoran CesljarRobin L ChazdonHan Y H ChenChelsea ChisholmHyunkook ChoEmil CiencialaConnie ClarkDavid ClarkGabriel D CollettaDavid Anthony CoomesFernando Cornejo ValverdeJosé J Corral-RivasPhilip M CrimJonathan R CummingSelvadurai DayanandanAndre Luis de GasperMathieu DecuyperGéraldine DerroireBen DeVriesIlija DjordjevicJiří DoležalAurélie DourdainNestor Laurier Engone ObiangBrian J EnquistTeresa J EyreAdandé Belarmain FandohanTom M FayleTed R FeldpauschLeandro V FerreiraLeena FinérMarkus FischerChristine FletcherLorenzo FrizzeraDamiano GianelleHenry B GlickDavid J HarrisAndrew HectorAndreas HempGeerten M HengeveldBruno HéraultJohn L HerbohnAnnika HillersEuridice N Honorio CoronadoCang HuiThomas IbanezNobuo ImaiAndrzej M JagodzińskiBogdan JaroszewiczVivian Kvist JohannsenCarlos Alfredo JolyTommaso JuckerIlbin JungViktor KarminovKuswata KartawinataElizabeth KearsleyDavid KenfackDeborah K KennardSebastian Kepfer-RojasGunnar KeppelMohammed Latif KhanTimothy J KilleenHyun Seok KimKanehiro KitayamaMichael KöhlHenn KorjusFlorian KraxnerDmitry KucherDiana LaarmannMait LangHuicui LuNatalia V LukinaBrian Salvin MaitnerYadvinder MalhiEric MarconBeatriz Schwantes MarimonBen Hur Marimon JuniorAndrew R MarshallEmanuel H MartinJorge A MeaveOmar Melo-CruzCasimiro MendozaIrina Mendoza-PoloStanislaw MiscickiCory MerowAbel Monteagudo MendozaVanessa S MorenoSharif A MukulPhilip MundhenkMaría Guadalupe Nava-MirandaDavid A NeillVictor J NeldnerRadovan V NevenicMichael R NgugiPascal Alex NiklausJacek OleksynPetr OntikovEdgar Ortiz-MalavasiYude PanAlain PaquetteAlexander Parada-GutierrezElena I ParfenovaMinjee ParkMarc ParrenNarayanaswamy ParthasarathyPablo L PeriSebastian PfautschNicolas PicardMaria Teresa Fernandez PiedadeDaniel PiottoNigel C A PitmanAxel Dalberg PoulsenJohn R PoulsenHans PretzschFreddy Ramirez ArevaloZorayda Restrepo-CorreaMirco RodeghieroSamir G RolimAnand RoopsindFrancesco RoveroErvan RutishauserPurabi SaikiaChristian Salas-EljatibPhilippe SanerPeter SchallMart-Jan SchelhaasDmitry G SchepaschenkoMichael Scherer-LorenzenBernhard SchmidJochen SchöngartEric B SearleVladimír ŠebeňJosep M Serra-DiazDouglas SheilAnatoly Z ShvidenkoJavier E Silva-EspejoMarcos SilveiraJames SinghPlinio SistFerry SlikBonaventure SonkéAlexandre F SouzaKrzysztof J StereńczakJens-Christian SvenningMiroslav SvobodaBen SwanepoelNatalia TarghettaNadja TchebakovaHans Ter SteegeRaquel ThomasElena TikhonovaPeter Mbanda UmunayVladimir A UsoltsevRenato ValenciaFernando ValladaresFons van der PlasTran Van DoMichael E van NulandRodolfo M VasquezHans VerbeeckHelder VianaAlexander C VibransSimone Aparecida VieiraKlaus von GadowHua-Feng WangJames V WatsonGijsbert D A WernerSusan K WiserFlorian WittmannHannsjoerg WoellVerginia WortelRoderik ZagtTomasz Zawiła-NiedźwieckiChunyu ZhangXiuhai ZhaoMo ZhouZhi-Xin ZhuIrié Casimir Zo-BiGeorge D GannThomas W CrowtherPublished in: Nature (2023)
Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.