Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Oliver StevensRebecca AndersonJohn StoverYu TengJames StannahRomain SilholHarriet JonesRoss D BootonRowan Martin-HughesLeigh JohnsonMathieu Maheu-GirouxSharmistha MishraJack StoneAnna BershteynHae-Young KimKeith SabinKate M MitchellDobromir DimitrovStefan BaralDeborah DonnellEline KorenrompBrian RiceJames R HargreavesPeter VickermanMarie-Claude BoilyJeffrey W Imai-EatonPublished in: Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) (2024)
Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.