Prediction and Decomposition of Efficiency Differences in Chinese Provincial Community Health Services.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the provincial efficiency of the Chinese community health care service and its differences. This study allows us to predict the provincial differences in the efficiency of the Chinese community health care service from 2017 to 2026. This study analyzes the contributions of inter-regional and intra-regional differences in the total efficiency difference. We use the Super-SBM (Slacks-based Model) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, Grey Model GM (1,1) for grey prediction, and the group-based Theil index decomposition method to study Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2016. Results show that a fluctuating trend existed in the average provincial efficiency of community health services from 2008 to 2016. The community health services in a considerable number of provincial areas were inefficient. This study also reveals that there existed apparent inter-provincial differences in efficiency in Chinese community health services. The inter-provincial differences of the efficiency of Chinese community health services revealed by the Theil index declined at a relatively slow pace. With regard to the provincial efficiency difference of the Chinese community health service, the intra-regional efficiency difference is the most important structural reason for the overall efficiency difference, which explains the overall difference to a large extent. The inter-regional efficiency difference among the eastern, central, and western regions becomes the secondary structural reason, which should not be ignored. In conclusion, focus should be put on restructuring the investments into medical resources for community health service in each Chinese province. More attentions should be put into narrowing the inter-regional efficiency differences of the Chinese provincial community health service. The strategies targeted at reducing the inter-regional efficiency differences should not be ignored, so as to facilitate the improvement of overall efficiency of the Chinese community health service.