Predicting nosocomial lower respiratory tract infections by a risk index based system.

Although belonging to one of the most common type of nosocomial infection, there was currently no simple prediction model for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). This study aims to develop a risk index based system for predicting nosocomial LRTIs based on data from a large point-prevalence survey. Among the 49328 patients included, the prevalence of nosocomial LRTIs was 1.70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64% to 1.76%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for logistic regression and fisher discriminant analysis were 0.907 (95% CI, 0.897 to 0.917) and 0.902 (95% CI, 0.892 to 0.912), respectively. The constructed risk index based system also displayed excellent discrimination (area under the ROC curve: 0.905 [95% CI, 0.895 to 0.915]) to identify LRTI in internal validation. Six risk levels were generated according to the risk score distribution of study population, ranging from 0 to 5, the corresponding prevalence of nosocomial LRTIs were 0.00%, 0.39%, 3.86%, 12.38%, 28.79% and 44.83%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of prediction were 0.87 and 0.79, respectively, when the best cut-off point of risk score was set to 14. Our study suggested that this newly constructed risk index based system might be applied to boost more rational infection control programs in clinical settings.