Machine Learning-Based Models for Prediction of Critical Illness at Community, Paramedic, and Hospital Stages.
Si-Jin LeeHyun Ji ParkJumi HwangSung Woo LeeKap-Su HanWon Young KimJinwoo JeongHyunggoo KangArmi KimChulung LeeSu-Jin KimPublished in: Emergency medicine international (2023)
Overcrowding of emergency department (ED) has put a strain on national healthcare systems and adversely affected the clinical outcomes of critically ill patients. Early identification of critically ill patients prior to ED visits can help induce optimal patient flow and allocate medical resources effectively. This study aims to develop ML-based models for predicting critical illness in the community, paramedic, and hospital stages using Korean National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) data. Random forest and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) were applied to develop predictive models. The predictive model performance based on AUROC in community stage, paramedic stage, and hospital stage was estimated to be 0.870 (95% CI: 0.869-0.871), 0.897 (95% CI: 0.896-0.898), and 0.950 (95% CI: 0.949-0.950) in random forest and 0.877 (95% CI: 0.876-0.878), 0.899 (95% CI: 0.898-0.900), and 0.950 (95% CI: 0.950-0.951) in LightGBM, respectively. The ML models showed high performance in predicting critical illness using variables available at each stage, which can be helpful in guiding patients to appropriate hospitals according to their severity of illness. Furthermore, a simulation model can be developed for proper allocation of limited medical resources.
Keyphrases
- healthcare
- emergency department
- machine learning
- adverse drug
- end stage renal disease
- climate change
- mental health
- ejection fraction
- chronic kidney disease
- big data
- newly diagnosed
- quality improvement
- acute care
- prognostic factors
- health information
- artificial intelligence
- case report
- affordable care act
- data analysis
- virtual reality
- patient reported