The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4.
H L Y ChanC J ChenO OmedeJ Al QamishK Al NaamaniA BaneS S TanM SimonovaI CardenasM DerbalaO AkinR O PhillipsM K AbdelmageedM AbdullaD AddaA Al BaqaliN Al DweikK Al EjjiI Al GhazzawiS Al KaabiM Al SadadiJ Al SalmanM AlBadriS A Al-BusafiH E Al-RomaihiW AmpofoK AntonovC AnyaikeF AromeSarah BlachM M BorodoS M BrandonB BrightM T ButtD S ChenP J ChenR N ChienW L ChuangD CuellarA A ElbardinyC EstesE FaragJ FungI GamkrelidzeV GarciaJ GenovZ GhandourM GhuloomB GomezJ GunterJ HabeebO HajelssedigW HamoudiS M HimattI HrsticC C HuC F HuangY T HuiR JahisD JelevA K JohnK S KaliaskarovaY KamelJ H KaoJ KhamisH KhattabiI KhoudriA KonysbekovaI KotzevM S LaiW C LaoJ LaydenM H LeeO LesiM LiA LoC K LooB LukšićA MaaroufiA O MaluL MatevaR MitovaR MohamedM MorovićK MurphyB MustaphaA NersesovE NgigeR NjouomO NjoyaD NonkovićS ObekpaS OgucheE E OkoloC OmuemuP OndoaO Opare-SemS Owusu-OforiY N ProkopenkoH RazaviD Razavi-ShearerK Razavi-ShearerB RedaeT ReicT Rinke de WitC RiosS RobbinsL R RobertsS J SanadJ D SchmelzerM SharmaT H SuK SultanK TchernevO T Y TsangS TsangC TzeutonS UgoezeB UzochukwuR ViA VinceH U WaniV W S WongA WorknehR YacoubK I YesmembetovM YoubiM F YuenH NdePublished in: Journal of viral hepatitis (2018)
Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.