Growing up is hard to do: a demographic model of survival and growth of Caribbean octocoral recruits.

High probabilities of zero and negative growth increase the time necessary to reach 5 cm and extends the demographic bottleneck caused by high mortality to multiple years. Only 5% of the recruits in the model survived and reached 5 cm height and, on average, recruits required 3 y to reach 5 cm height. Field measurements of recruitment rates often use colony height to differentiate recruits from older colonies, but height cannot unambiguously identify recruits due to the highly variable nature of colony growth. Our model shows how recruitment rates based on height average recruitment and survival across more than a single year, but size-based definitions of recruitment if consistently used can characterize the role of supply and early survival in the population dynamics of species.