Estimating the size of illicit tobacco market in Lithuania: results from the discarded pack collection method.

This study presents data from the first national industry-independent study on illicit tobacco trade in Lithuania using discarded cigarette pack collection method. As customs seizure data show, our results also indicate that the illicit cigarette market is primarily supplied by Belarus state-owned Grodno Tobacco Factory Neman, known for filling Europe with cheap cigarettes. An estimate derived from this study is higher than both the industry-independent estimate obtained by the survey method and the estimates offered by the tobacco industry. This adds to the evidence that the difference in estimates obtained by different methods reflects the strengths and weaknesses of each. The study also demonstrates the impact of a rogue neighbour on the illicit market in an adjacent country and offers suggestions on how to address it.