Robust Bayesian growth curve modelling using conditional medians.

Growth curve models have been widely used to analyse longitudinal data in social and behavioural sciences. Although growth curve models with normality assumptions are relatively easy to estimate, practical data are rarely normal. Failing to account for non-normal data may lead to unreliable model estimation and misleading statistical inference. In this work, we propose a robust approach for growth curve modelling using conditional medians that are less sensitive to outlying observations. Bayesian methods are applied for model estimation and inference. Based on the existing work on Bayesian quantile regression using asymmetric Laplace distributions, we use asymmetric Laplace distributions to convert the problem of estimating a median growth curve model into a problem of obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator for a transformed model. Monte Carlo simulation studies have been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed approach with data containing outliers or leverage observations. The results show that the proposed approach yields more accurate and efficient parameter estimates than traditional growth curve modelling. We illustrate the application of our robust approach using conditional medians based on a real data set from the Virginia Cognitive Aging Project.