Nomograms for predicting cancer-specific and overall survival in patients with invasive extramammary Paget's disease.

Aim: To develop nomograms for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with invasive extramammary Paget's disease (iEMPD). Patients & methods: Retrospective data of 1955 patients with iEMPD were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Nomograms for predicting CSS and OS were established using competing risk regression and Cox regression, respectively, and were internally validated. Results: Five (age, surgery, tumor location, stage and concurrent malignancy) and eight (gender, age, race, marital status, surgery, tumor location, stage and lymph node metastasis) clinicopathological factors were utilized to construct nomograms for predicting CSS and OS, respectively. The concordance indices of the nomograms for predicting CSS and OS were 0.78 and 0.73, respectively. The validation of the nomograms showed good calibration and discrimination. The decision curve analyses confirmed the clinical utility of these nomograms. Conclusion: The nomograms can be a reliable tool for treatment design and prognostic evaluation of iEMPD.