Which therapist perceptions best predict client outcomes? A naturalistic examination.

Examining associations between therapists' perceptions of therapy sessions and client-reported outcomes in naturalistic settings (real-life therapy settings) can provide valuable guidance for the assessment, treatment, and monitoring of clients. This study included data of 1334 sessions from 127 clients (86 individual and 41 couple cases) and 15 therapists, collected at a therapy training center. Clients reported their personal functioning and individual symptoms before each session. Therapists rated clients' participation, receptivity, session progress, goal progress, and therapeutic alliance at the end of each therapy session. Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling analyses revealed that therapist-rated client participation and goal progress predicted better personal functioning, beyond clients' previous personal functioning scores. In contrast, none of therapist-rated session variables predicted clients' individual symptoms, beyond previous symptom scores. Power analyses suggested sufficient statistical power to detect small effect sizes. Findings of the current study have clinical implications for treatment planning and progress monitoring.