Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections.

Expert knowledge is widely applied in ecological and conservation contexts. One application is the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSM) for management and conservation decisions; however, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on one method for elicitation, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we generated expert-based HSM for four felid species: two forest specialists [ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) and margay (Leopardus wiedii)], and two habitat generalist species [pampas cat (Leopardus colocola) and puma (Puma concolor)]. Using these HSM, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and participant's attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses or iterative feedback improved model performance. We estimated 160 HSM and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC >0.7) than did those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased with participants' years of experience in the study area, but only for the understudied generalist species, pampas cat (β = 0.024, SE = 0.007). No other participant's attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, while aggregating judgements across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgements increased with group size but leveled off after five participants for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases with habitat specialization. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modelling of understudied and generalist species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.