Should We "Wait and See"?: Change in Weight Status among US Adolescents in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

Background: Many parents and providers adopt a "wait and see" approach to obesity (OB) management. The goal of this study was to determine the likelihood that youth with overweight (OW) or OB would become normal weight over time. Methods: Data from the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study were used to examine the proportion of teens (aged 12-17 years) with OW/OB who tracked into a lower weight category over four waves of data collection (2013-2018). Analysis was restricted to those who completed all four waves of assessments ( n  = 10,086). Repeated-measures logistic regression models were used to describe the odds of having a BMI within the normal weight range at Waves 2-4, given an OW or obese weight status in the previous wave. Results: At Wave 1, 65% of the sample was normal weight, 18% had OW, and 17% had OB. By Wave 4, 24% had OW and 20% had OB. The adjusted odds of reporting a normal weight relative to OW/OB decreased by 13% each year. In Wave 4, only 2% [standard error (SE) 0.4%] of boys and 2% (SE 0.3%) of girls transitioned from OB to normal weight. For youth with OB in Wave 1, the probability of being in the normal weight category in Wave 2 was 0.04 (95% confidence interval 0.035-0.052), and decreased thereafter. Conclusion: Very few teens were able to return to normal weight once they developed OW/OB. Adopting a "wait and see" approach to OB management may be detrimental to a child's health.