In Silico Models for Design and Optimization of Science-Based Listeria Environmental Monitoring Programs in Fresh-Cut Produce Facilities.

Food facilities need time- and cost-saving methods during the development and optimization of environmental monitoring for pathogens and their surrogates. Rapid virtual experimentation through in silico modeling can alleviate the need for extensive real-world, trial-and-error style program design. Two agent-based models of fresh-cut produce facilities were developed as a way to simulate the dynamics of Listeria in the built environment by modeling the different surfaces of equipment and employees in a facility as agents. Five sampling schemes at three time points were evaluated in silico on their ability to locate the presence of Listeria contamination in a facility with sample sites for each scheme (i.e., scenario, as modeled using scenario analysis) based on the following: the facilities' current environmental monitoring program (scenario 1), Food and Drug Administration recommendations (scenario 2), random selection (scenario 3), sites exclusively from zone 3 (i.e., sites in the production room but not directly adjacent to food contact surfaces) (scenario 4), or model prediction of elevated risk of contamination (scenario 5). Variation was observed between the scenarios on how well the Listeria prevalence of the virtually collected samples reflected the true prevalence of contaminated agents in the modeled operation. The zone 3 only (scenario 4) and model-based (scenario 5) sampling scenarios consistently overestimated true prevalence across time, suggesting that those scenarios could provide a more sensitive approach for determining if Listeria is present in the operation. The random sampling scenario (scenario 3) may be more useful for operations looking for a scheme that is most likely to reflect the true prevalence. Overall, the developed models allow for rapid virtual experimentation and evaluation of sampling schemes specific to unique fresh-cut produce facilities. IMPORTANCE Programs such as environmental monitoring are used to determine the state of a given food facility with regard to the presence of environmental pathogens, such as Listeria monocytogenes, that could potentially cross-contaminate food product. However, the design of environmental monitoring programs is complex, and there are infinite ways to conduct the sampling that is required for these programs. Experimentally evaluating sampling schemes in a food facility is time-consuming, costly, and nearly impossible. Therefore, the food industry needs science-based tools to aid in developing and refining sampling plans that reduce the risk of harboring contamination. Two agent-based models of two fresh-cut produce facilities reported here demonstrate a novel way to evaluate how different sampling schemes can be rapidly evaluated across multiple time points as a way to understand how sampling can be optimized in an effort to locate the presence of Listeria in a food facility.