Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.

This study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions in northern Guadalcanal which allow sandbars to form across the mouths of estuaries which act to develop or increase stagnant brackish marshes in low rainfall periods. These are ideal habitats for the main mosquito vector, Anopheles farauti. High rainfall accumulations result in the flushing of these habitats, reducing their viability. The results of this study are now being used as the basis of a malaria early warning system which has been jointly implemented by the SIMS, NVBDCP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.