Natural history and optimal treatment strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: Analysis using a nomogram and Markov decision model.

Compared with main duct- and mixed-type IPMN, which have a high risk of malignancy (79.9%), BD-IPMN is very indolent (5.9%). The nomogram-based decision model suggests surgery rather than surveillance for patients with a high malignancy risk. The optimal treatment strategy between surgery and surveillance should consider patients' health status, malignancy risk, and centers' experience.