Estimating Transition Probabilities Across the Alzheimer's Disease Continuum Using a Nationally Representative Real-World Database in the United States.

This analysis shows that the risk of progression is greater in earlier AD states, increases over time, and is higher in patients who are older, with fewer years of education, unemployed, or in a nursing home at baseline. The estimated transition probabilities can provide guidance for future disease management and clinical trial design optimization, and can be used to refine existing cost-effectiveness frameworks.