Identifying mechanisms and therapeutic targets in muscle using Bayesian parameter estimation with conditional variational autoencoders.

Cardiomyopathies, often caused by mutations in genes encoding muscle proteins, are traditionally treated by phenotyping hearts and addressing symptoms post irreversible damage. With advancements in genotyping, early diagnosis is now possible, potentially preventing such damage. However, the intricate structure of muscle and its myriad proteins make treatment predictions challenging. Here we approach the problem of estimating therapeutic targets for a mutation in mouse muscle using a spatially explicit half sarcomere muscle model. We selected 9 rate parameters in our model linked to both small molecules and cardiomyopathy-causing mutations. We then randomly varied these rate parameters and simulated an isometric twitch for each combination to generate a large training dataset. We used this dataset to train a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE), a technique used in Bayesian parameter estimation. Given simulated or experimental isometric twitches, this machine learning model is able to then predict the set of rate parameters which are most likely to yield that result. We then predict the set of rate parameters associated with both control and the cardiac Troponin C (cTnC) I61Q variant in mouse trabeculae and and model parameters that recover the abnormal 61Q cTnC twitches.