Does contracting-out of primary health care services to non-state providers reduce child mortality in South Sudan? A synthetic control analysis.

Contracting-out is increasingly utilized as a health system strengthening strategy in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs), to expand access to health interventions known to reduce child mortality. Existing scholarship suggests its effect has been mixed, limiting a definitive conclusion on its magnitude and direction. There are few studies assessing the impact on under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and fewer evaluations to-date have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa. We test the hypothesis that the contracting-out approach implemented in South Sudan in 2012 led to an observable reduction in U5MR. We use a novel approach, the synthetic control method to construct a synthetic South Sudan from a panel of LMICs using data from the World Bank Developmental Indicators (WDI) database. The analysis shows on average, contracting-out had a limited effect on the rate of decline of U5MR; U5MR declined by 5.2% annually between 2000 and 2011, and by 2.58% between 2012 and 2014. Relative to its synthetic control, U5MR is 2% and 5% higher in 2012 and 2013, continuing to diverge during the observation period. These findings suggest limitations in the contracting approach, and we discuss the possible policy implications of these findings.